Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook for crude oil prices, projecting that Brent crude could average about $70 per barrel in 2026 if current geopolitical tensions disrupt supply routes for an extended period.
The forecast assumes that the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, could remain effectively closed for roughly a month due to regional instability. Such a disruption would limit global oil flows and push prices higher in the short term.
However, the ratings agency expects that once shipping activities gradually resume, prices could ease later in the year, potentially returning to the mid-$60 per barrel range as supply chains stabilise and markets adjust.
Despite the possibility of temporary price spikes, analysts at Fitch believe the global economy could remain relatively stable if the disruption proves short-lived. The agency notes that oil market shocks often create short-term volatility but do not always derail broader economic growth if supply conditions normalize quickly.
Energy markets have recently been under pressure due to rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with concerns that shipping interruptions could restrict the movement of crude through the Gulf a route responsible for transporting a significant share of the world’s oil supply.
While the forecast signals potential volatility in global energy markets, Fitch maintains that long-term price trends will still depend heavily on global demand patterns, production levels among major oil-producing countries, and the pace of economic growth worldwide.