The ongoing tensions in the Middle East could begin to place pressure on the Ghanaian cedi as disruptions to air traffic threaten the flow of gold exports that have helped stabilise the currency over the past year.
A significant portion of Ghana’s small-scale gold exports are shipped to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, making the emirate the country’s most critical destination for the trade.
Data from the Ghana Gold Board indicates that Ghana exported about 103,804 kilograms of small-scale gold in 2025. More than 72 percent of that volume was sent to Dubai, while approximately 25 percent went to India. Together, the two markets absorbed nearly all of the country’s small-scale gold exports.
However, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has led to the closure of several airspaces across parts of the Middle East, disrupting the main flight routes used to transport gold from Ghana to Dubai.
The disruption is raising concerns about the supply of foreign currency that typically flows back into the Ghanaian economy from gold exports.
Under the current system, the Ghana Gold Board purchases gold from small-scale miners in cedis and exports it to international buyers. The proceeds from these exports are then returned to the Bank of Ghana in foreign currency, which is subsequently supplied to the local foreign exchange market.
This process has become one of the key sources of dollar inflows supporting the cedi.
Gold exports from small-scale miners are usually processed and shipped within one to two weeks, ensuring a steady inflow of foreign currency. But the disruption to flights across the Middle East has slowed shipments to Dubai, reducing the pace at which export revenues return to the country.
The challenge is compounded by the structure of Ghana’s gold trade. Much of the gold produced by small-scale miners lacks a comprehensive traceability system, making it difficult to sell in stricter markets such as Switzerland or the United States, where buyers require detailed supply chain verification.
As a result, Ghana has become heavily dependent on markets such as Dubai, where regulatory scrutiny over the origin of gold is generally less strict.
Authorities are now reportedly exploring ways to diversify export destinations in order to reduce reliance on the Middle East. India, which already accounts for about a quarter of Ghana’s small-scale gold exports, is being considered as a potential alternative market.
However, redirecting exports could increase logistical costs and may require Ghana to sell its gold at discounted prices. The lack of traceability could also make it difficult to secure new buyers in more regulated markets.
The situation is further complicated by developments within Dubai’s gold market itself. Reports from Bloomberg suggest that some traders in the emirate are already offering gold at steep discounts as storage facilities become congested and it becomes harder to move refined gold to final buyers.
If the disruptions persist, buyers may demand deeper discounts from suppliers such as Ghana to offset their own losses.
Although the Bank of Ghana holds more than $13 billion in foreign exchange reserves, those reserves are primarily intended to cushion the economy against major external shocks rather than to routinely stabilise the currency.
For now, the cedi remains relatively stable, trading at around 10.79 cedis to the dollar despite the tensions in the Middle East. Analysts, however, warn that prolonged disruptions to gold exports could weaken the steady dollar inflows that have supported the currency.
The situation also highlights a broader structural risk in Ghana’s gold trade.
With nearly all small-scale gold exports concentrated in just two markets, Dubai and India, any geopolitical or logistical disruption affecting those destinations can quickly ripple through Ghana’s economy.
The government has indicated that the Ghana Gold Board is working on introducing a traceability system that would allow Ghanaian gold to access premium markets such as Switzerland and the United States.
Ghana has also begun refining more gold locally, but its refineries are not yet certified by the London Bullion Market Association, which limits access to the most lucrative segments of the global gold market.
Until these structural challenges are addressed, Ghana is likely to remain heavily dependent on a narrow group of export markets for its gold—leaving the economy exposed to external disruptions far beyond its borders.